经典重译之股票大作手回忆录(347)
原文(377):
Observation,experience,memory and mathematics—these are what
the successful trader must depend on.He must not only observe accurately but remember at all times what he has observed.
He cannot bet on the unreasonable or on the unexpected,however strong his personal convictions may be about man's unreasonableness or however certain he may feel that the unexpected happens very frequently.
He must bet always on probabilities—that is,try to anticipate them.Years of practice at the game,of constant study,of always remembering,enable the trader to act on the instant when the unexpected happens as well as when the expected comes to pass.
A man can have great mathematical ability and an unusual power of accurate observation and yet fail in speculation unless he also possesses the experience and the memory.
And then,like the physician who keeps up with the advances of science,the wise trader never ceases to study general conditions,to keep track of developments everywhere that are likely to affect or influence the course of the various markets.
After years at the game it becomes a habit to keep posted.He acts almost automatically.He acquires the invaluable professional attitude and that enables him to beat the game—at times!
This difference between the professional and the amateur or occasional trader cannot be overemphasised.I find,for instance,that memory and mathematics help me very much.Wall Street makes its money on a mathematical basis.I mean,it makes its money by dealing with facts and figures.
其他版本译文(377):
一个成功的股票交易者,靠的就是观察、经验、记忆、数学。他既需要准确地观察,也需要牢记自己观察到的结果。他不能在没有依据的事情或者意料之外的情况下去赌。无论他自己多么坚信没有依据的东西,也不管人们对预料之外的情况多么看好,他都要把宝押在可能性上,也就是说他要预测这些可能。在这样的投资游戏里,那些长年累月的行动、连续不断的研究、牢不可破的记忆,能够让人在可以或不能预料的情况发生的时候,都能够及时采取应对措施。
人能够具备很强的数学能力和对事物进行精确观察的能力,可如果他没有多少经验和记忆的储备,仍然会失败。而且,睿智的商人也要像随着科学进展而进步的医生那样,不停地研究整个大势,追踪各种可能对市场走向起到影响作用的发展情况。在这里面打拼几年后,他会养成保持信息灵通的好习惯,他差不多要能够自发地行动起来。他要修炼成珍贵的专业态度,这一点能够让他在行业内不断地成功。专业的炒股手和业余的炒股手,以及偶然玩一次的人之间有很大区别,强调这个差别也不是过分的事。比如我就发现数学和记忆对我帮助很大。数学是华尔街交易商赚钱的基本功,我是说,华尔街就是靠处理数字和事实来赚钱的。
我的译文(377):
成功的交易者必须依靠的是观察、经验、记性和数学。不仅观察要准确,而且得能记住观察到的东西。
他不能押注于非理性或意外,无论他个人多么相信人类会有非理性的一面,也无论他多么确定意外乃常有之事。还是得押注于可能发生的事,押注于你能预期到的事。
经年累月的去实践,持续的研究,保持连贯的记忆,才能保证交易者在意外发生以及预期达成时及时行动。
一个人具备了出色的数学能力和精准而强大的观察能力,如果没有经验或者记性不好,在投机中,他仍然可能失败。
再有就是,如同医生要紧跟科技进步一样,明智的交易者从不停止研究大势,从不停止追踪各个不同的市场,他要始终留意那些影响和支配市场变化的因素是如何形成的。经年累月的这么干,就形成了习惯(译者注:即卖油翁式的肌肉记忆),几乎可以不假思索的采取行动,如此这般,他就拥有了宝贵的专业性,从而保证他能够抓住时机,战胜市场。 不管哪一种类型的交易者,职业的,业余的或者长线交易者,都应当具备这种专业性。比如,我就发现,好记性和数学对我就非常有帮助。在华尔街赚钱,数学是基础。我意思,在这里赚钱,依靠的就是以数字表达的事实。
引用依据:
1. Edwin Lefèvre: Reminiscences of a Stock Operator
2. 《股票大作手回忆录》([美] 埃德温·勒菲弗 著,汤前燕 译)
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