经典重译之股票大作手回忆录(423)
原文(453):
I myself was confident that the bull market was over.I had verified my first surmise by tests not alone in Pete Products but in other stocks as well.I didn't wait for the bear market to announce its safe arrival before I started selling.Of course I didn't sell a share of Pete Products,though I was short of other stocks.
The Pete Products pool,as I expected,was hung up with all they held to begin with and with all they had to take in their futile effort to hold up the price.In the end they did liquidate;but at much lower figures than they would have got if Prentiss had let me sell when and as I wished.
It could not be otherwise.But Prentiss still thinks he was right—or says he does.I understand he says the reason I gave him the advice I did was that I was short of other stocks and the general market was going up.It implies,of course,that the break in Pete Products that would have resulted from selling out the pool's holdings at any price would have helped my bear position in other stocks.
That is all tommyrot.I was not bearish because I was short of stocks.I was bearish because that was the way I sized up the situation,and I sold stocks short only after I turned bearish.There never is much money in doing things wrong end to;not in the stock market.
其他版本译文(453):
我坚信多头市场已近尾声,我不光用油品公司测试了市场,也通过买卖其他股票进行了测试,为我起初的猜测给以验证。我不会在完全属于空头市场的时候才去放空股票。至于油品公司,我自然一股都没卖,只放空了其他的股票。
就像我想的那样,油品公司把他们一开始就有的股票和为了拉抬股价却丝毫作用没起而买进的股票全部抱在了怀里,最终的结果还是卖掉了股票,可与布兰迪不让我卖的那个时候相比,他们卖出的价格更低。这不可能有其他结果,可布兰迪还是觉得他们没错,或者他自己没做错。我清楚的是,他说我向他提意见,是因为我放空了其他的股票,可是股市依然是上升趋势。这明显是在说,如果没有进行限价就买完手中的股票,会让油品公司股票暴跌,这样会帮助我在其他股票的空头部位。
这纯粹是信口开河。我不看好股市行情,并非我放空了股票,而是因为我预估股市大盘的发展走向就是这样,我只有在自己从做多转为做空的时候,才会放空。朝着错的方向走,不会有钱可赚,尤其是炒股。
我的译文(453):
我本人是坚信牛市到头了。这之前,对于我最初的推测,我就已经做过检验,我不仅测试了Pete Products的市场,也测试了其他的股票。我在熊市初露端倪时就已经开始卖出了。(译者注:原文字面意思是:我没有等到熊市确定无疑时,再开始卖出。由此可以看出,利弗莫尔这是在抄底摸顶啊!那么到底该不该抄底摸顶呢?)
当然,Pete Products的股票我一股都没有卖,尽管我已经做空了其他的股票。
不出我所料,Pete Products 的庄家被套住了,手里所有的筹码都被套住了,包括初始持仓,以及为了护盘而不得不吃进的筹码。妄图以此来支撑股价,却徒劳无功,最终,他们也只能被迫平仓,而平仓的价格可比之前低多了,如果之前Prentiss听了我的,那会儿就卖,他们本可以拿到更好的价格。
不可能有别的结果,但Prentiss仍然觉得他是对的,或者说口头上他是不承认自己搞错了。
他认为市场正在上涨,而我之所以建议他卖,是因为我自己在做空其他股票,我理解他说的这些理由,他的话外音就是,不问价格的抛售他们持仓的这只股票,造成该股大跌,有利于我在其他股票上的空头仓位。
这纯粹是无稽之谈,我可不是因为有了空头仓位才看空市场的,我是基于对大势的研判,才看空市场的,而因为我先转向看空市场,所以我才建立的空头仓位。如此因果颠倒,本末倒置,不只在股票市场上挣不到钱,在其他领域一样不行。
引用依据:
1. Edwin Lefèvre: Reminiscences of a Stock Operator
2. 《股票大作手回忆录》([美] 埃德温·勒菲弗 著,汤前燕 译)
上一集: